Clarifies the Future of Internet of Things
IDTechEx has released a newly researched report, “Internetof Things 2017-2027“. Benchmarking what went before, it
finds that the most prolific electronic device is the anti-theft tag known as
electronic article surveillance (EAS).
This is because it is disposable and big retailers and libraries in some
countries feel that it deters thieves. Over ten billion are produced yearly,
mostly sold at around one cent with 0.5 cent ones available. There are three
standards impeding sales because tags have to be replaced and often produce is
defaced in that process when goods are rerouted to a different retailer.
Next comes disposable RFID tags which help stock
control at around eight cents apiece. There is one standard portfolio for the
highest volume applications. Both EAS and highest volume RFID took at least 20
years to get there.
Then comes mobile phones which are not disposable but they are
mostly replaced within
two years. RFID and mobile phones sell in billions yearly.
EAS, RFID and mobile phones are not hard wired so there are no delays and costs
from that but they all need infrastructure, in the case of mobile phones,
widely deployed infrastructure. The EAS and RFID systems are usually
operationally closed systems – only one service provider accesses them so their
security is not a serious issue even though RFID often has internet backhaul.
The phones are on more open systems and they are largely insecure but that has
not impeded sales because the consumer benefits are so compelling.
Internet of Things nodes constitute IP addressed things that
collaborate with things using the internet. The nodes that are operationally
suitable for widespread deployment are tens of dollars each though they can be
one or two dollars if improved and sold in very high volume.
If they are to be sold in tens of billions yearly they need to
be ultra-low power and disposable, fit-and-forget.
Indeed they will probably be self-fit as with dropping them from a helicopter
onto forests for forest fire monitoring, snow for avalanche monitoring or
tracking oil slicks at sea. One
standard with interoperability please. Self-organising,
self-healing wireless sensor networks (WSN) have not proved to be sufficiently
scalable due to power consumption and short range so star extensions to the
internet like LoRaWAN and other options are to the fore this
software and systems challenges primarily, not yet to install any high volume
actual systems. For example, the UK Government’s latest $38 million investment
in IoT will focus on enabling the UK’s
businesses and public sector to make advances in creating their IoT capability,
specifically in areas such as security and trust, data interoperability,
investment justification and design development. Correctly the major emphasis
is on systems and software not nodes.
Chinese show every sign of achieving their usual formidable cost reduction.
Like EAS and RFID, IoT is not a consumer item. Above all,
retailers and their suppliers collaborate to create the primary demand for EAS
and highest volume RFID and the consumer does not see an obvious benefit. In
the early years, EAS and RFID were forecasted to be sold in tens of billions to
trillions and when progress was slow, forecasters drew ever steeper slopes to
predict the same end result. That was until reality dawned. That bubble pushing
is happening with IoT today despite lacklustre sales. Indeed, no enduringly
profitable application with very high volume has yet been proven. Nonetheless,
IDTechEx sees a $20 billion market in 2020, with little of that being the
nodes.From this benchmarking it is clear that many pre-requisites are
not yet in place for IoT to be widely deployed. The hype will
dissipate and considerable deployment will occur but not at the scale and speed
that most predict and only if security issues are solved. For more read the new
IDTechEx report, “Internet of Things 2017-2027” and attend IDTechExShow!, Santa Clara, California on November 16-17. It will have eight
parallel conferences, one being on IoT, and most of the others plus the 200+
exhibition have much that is relevant to IoT.