Gartner Reveals Top
Predictions for IT Organizations and Users in 2018 and Beyond
Predictions for IT Organizations and Users in 2018 and Beyond
SINGAPORE, October 4, 2017 — Gartner, Inc. today revealed its top predictions for 2018 and beyond.
Gartner’s top predictions will enable organizations to move beyond thinking
about mere notions of technology adoption to focus on the issues that surround
what it really means to be human in the digital world.
Gartner’s top predictions will enable organizations to move beyond thinking
about mere notions of technology adoption to focus on the issues that surround
what it really means to be human in the digital world.
“Technology-based innovation is arriving
faster than most organizations can keep up with. Before one innovation is
implemented, two others arrive,” said Daryl Plummer, vice president and Gartner
Fellow, Distinguished. “CIOs in end-user organizations will need to
develop a pace that can be sustained no matter what the future holds. Our
predictions provide insight into that future, but enterprises will still be required
to develop a discipline around how pace can be achieved. Those who seek value
from technology-based options must move faster as their digital business
efforts move into high gear. Speed of changewill require variability of skills
and capabilities to address rising challenges.”
faster than most organizations can keep up with. Before one innovation is
implemented, two others arrive,” said Daryl Plummer, vice president and Gartner
Fellow, Distinguished. “CIOs in end-user organizations will need to
develop a pace that can be sustained no matter what the future holds. Our
predictions provide insight into that future, but enterprises will still be required
to develop a discipline around how pace can be achieved. Those who seek value
from technology-based options must move faster as their digital business
efforts move into high gear. Speed of changewill require variability of skills
and capabilities to address rising challenges.”
Gartner analysts presented their top 10 strategic
predictions during Gartner Symposium/ITxpo,
which is taking place till Thursday.
predictions during Gartner Symposium/ITxpo,
which is taking place till Thursday.
By 2021, early adopter brands that redesign their
websites to support visual- and voice-search will increase digital commerce
revenue by 30 percent.
websites to support visual- and voice-search will increase digital commerce
revenue by 30 percent.
Voice- and visual-search based queries improve
marketers’ understanding of consumers’ interests and intent. Coupled with the
additional contextual cues available from smartphones, early adopter brands and
commerce sites will capitalize on consumers’ shift to these search modalities.
They will gain competitive advantage as measured in conversion rates, revenue
growth, new customer acquisition, market share and customer satisfaction.
Consumer demand for voice devices —
embodied by products such as Amazon Echo and Google Home — is expected to
generate $3.5 billion by 2021. Brands that are able to develop ways to leverage
systems that can take a handoff, so to speak, from the devices will see rapid
growth in digital commerce revenue.
marketers’ understanding of consumers’ interests and intent. Coupled with the
additional contextual cues available from smartphones, early adopter brands and
commerce sites will capitalize on consumers’ shift to these search modalities.
They will gain competitive advantage as measured in conversion rates, revenue
growth, new customer acquisition, market share and customer satisfaction.
Consumer demand for voice devices —
embodied by products such as Amazon Echo and Google Home — is expected to
generate $3.5 billion by 2021. Brands that are able to develop ways to leverage
systems that can take a handoff, so to speak, from the devices will see rapid
growth in digital commerce revenue.
By 2020, five of the top seven digital giants will
willfully “self-disrupt” to create their next leadership opportunity.
willfully “self-disrupt” to create their next leadership opportunity.
In doing new things, digital giants —
such as Alibaba, Amazon, Apple, Baidu, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and Tencent
— are likely to run into situations where their influence has grown so large
that it is difficult to create new value scenarios. This ultimately leads to
self-disruption. In a self-disrupting strategy, disruption arises as
intentional intent to get there first, even if it is necessary to disrupt
yourself. While this can be risky, risk of inaction can be even higher.
such as Alibaba, Amazon, Apple, Baidu, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and Tencent
— are likely to run into situations where their influence has grown so large
that it is difficult to create new value scenarios. This ultimately leads to
self-disruption. In a self-disrupting strategy, disruption arises as
intentional intent to get there first, even if it is necessary to disrupt
yourself. While this can be risky, risk of inaction can be even higher.
“Research in Motion (RIM), for example, could
have disrupted itself by delivering BlackBerry Messenger and the BlackBerry
network to iPhones and Android phones. While they would have given up exclusive
use of these capabilities — thus disrupting themselves — they would have
created market space within competitive ecosystems to grow their influence
rather than watching it decline,” said Mr. Plummer. “The digital
giants have a vested interest in innovation continuing to accelerate.
Therefore, leaders in the digital space must continuously seek to create new
opportunities, including self-disruption.”
have disrupted itself by delivering BlackBerry Messenger and the BlackBerry
network to iPhones and Android phones. While they would have given up exclusive
use of these capabilities — thus disrupting themselves — they would have
created market space within competitive ecosystems to grow their influence
rather than watching it decline,” said Mr. Plummer. “The digital
giants have a vested interest in innovation continuing to accelerate.
Therefore, leaders in the digital space must continuously seek to create new
opportunities, including self-disruption.”
By the end of 2020, the banking industry will derive $1 billion in
business value from the use of blockchain-based cryptocurrencies.
business value from the use of blockchain-based cryptocurrencies.
The current combined value of cryptocurrencies in
circulation worldwide is $155 billon, and this value has been increasing as
tokens continue to proliferate and market interest grows. Cryptocurrencies are
more mature than the technical and business infrastructure that supports them.
This is, in part, due to the lack of credibility tokenized developments have
received from mainstream businesses. However, once banks start to see
cryptocurrencies and digital assets in the same context as more traditional
financial instruments, more distributed business value will begin to accrue.
This requires every industry to rethink aspects of current fiat-based business
models such as pricing of goods and services, accounting and tax methods,
payment systems, and risk management capabilities to accommodate these new
forms of value in their business strategies.
circulation worldwide is $155 billon, and this value has been increasing as
tokens continue to proliferate and market interest grows. Cryptocurrencies are
more mature than the technical and business infrastructure that supports them.
This is, in part, due to the lack of credibility tokenized developments have
received from mainstream businesses. However, once banks start to see
cryptocurrencies and digital assets in the same context as more traditional
financial instruments, more distributed business value will begin to accrue.
This requires every industry to rethink aspects of current fiat-based business
models such as pricing of goods and services, accounting and tax methods,
payment systems, and risk management capabilities to accommodate these new
forms of value in their business strategies.
By 2022, most people in mature economies will
consume more false information than true information.
consume more false information than true information.
“Fake news” has become a major worldwide political and media
theme for 2017. While fake news is currently in the public consciousness, it is
important to realize the extent of digitally created content that is not a
factual or authentic representation of information goes well beyond the news
aspect. For enterprises, this acceleration of content in a social
media-dominated discourse presents a real problem. Enterprises need to not only
monitor closely what is being said about their brands directly, but also in
what contexts, to ensure they are not associated with content that is
detrimental to their brand value.
theme for 2017. While fake news is currently in the public consciousness, it is
important to realize the extent of digitally created content that is not a
factual or authentic representation of information goes well beyond the news
aspect. For enterprises, this acceleration of content in a social
media-dominated discourse presents a real problem. Enterprises need to not only
monitor closely what is being said about their brands directly, but also in
what contexts, to ensure they are not associated with content that is
detrimental to their brand value.
By 2020, AI-driven creation of “counterfeit
reality,” or fake content, will outpace AI’s ability to detect it,
fomenting digital distrust.
reality,” or fake content, will outpace AI’s ability to detect it,
fomenting digital distrust.
“Counterfeit reality” is the
digital creation of images, video, documents, or sounds that are convincingly
realistic representations of things that never occurred or existed exactly as
represented. In the past 30 years, the ability to create and to disseminate
content that has been subtly or overtly altered has greatly increased as huge
numbers of people gained access to the internet with few controls on content
distribution. The next wave of that distribution will be machine-generated
content.
digital creation of images, video, documents, or sounds that are convincingly
realistic representations of things that never occurred or existed exactly as
represented. In the past 30 years, the ability to create and to disseminate
content that has been subtly or overtly altered has greatly increased as huge
numbers of people gained access to the internet with few controls on content
distribution. The next wave of that distribution will be machine-generated
content.
“The detection of counterfeit reality will
best be accomplished by artificial intelligence (AI)
which is able to identify and track markers in counterfeit content faster than
human reviewers,” said Mr. Plummer. “Unfortunately, as the creation
of counterfeit reality using AI techniques has accelerated in recent years,
using AI to detect counterfeit reality currently lags behind the use of AI to
create it.
best be accomplished by artificial intelligence (AI)
which is able to identify and track markers in counterfeit content faster than
human reviewers,” said Mr. Plummer. “Unfortunately, as the creation
of counterfeit reality using AI techniques has accelerated in recent years,
using AI to detect counterfeit reality currently lags behind the use of AI to
create it.
By 2021, more than 50 percent of enterprises will
be spending more per annum on bots and chatbot creations than traditional
mobile app developments.
be spending more per annum on bots and chatbot creations than traditional
mobile app developments.
User attention is shifting away from individual
apps on mobile devices and splintering across emerging post-app technologies
such as bots and chatbots. Today, chatbots are the face of AI and will impact
all areas where there is communication between humans. Bots have the ability to
transform the way apps themselves are built and the potential to change the way
that users interact with technology. The appropriate use of bots is also likely
to increase employee or customer engagement, as they can quickly automate tasks
to free up the workforce for more nonstandard work, including
question-and-answer interactions, when deployed as chatbots or virtual
assistants.
apps on mobile devices and splintering across emerging post-app technologies
such as bots and chatbots. Today, chatbots are the face of AI and will impact
all areas where there is communication between humans. Bots have the ability to
transform the way apps themselves are built and the potential to change the way
that users interact with technology. The appropriate use of bots is also likely
to increase employee or customer engagement, as they can quickly automate tasks
to free up the workforce for more nonstandard work, including
question-and-answer interactions, when deployed as chatbots or virtual
assistants.
By 2021, 40 percent of IT staff will be
versatilists, holding multiple roles, most of which will be business, rather
than technology-related.
versatilists, holding multiple roles, most of which will be business, rather
than technology-related.
IT specialists represent about 42 percent of the
entire IT workforce in 2017, but by 2019, Gartner predicts that IT technical
specialist hires will fall by more than 5 percent as digital business
initiatives require increasing numbers of IT versatilists. This shift will
begin in infrastructure and operations (I&O),
as the need for I&O that can support on-demand infrastructure will emerge.
With a solid I&O foundation in place, an increase in nontechnical IT
managers and leaders with the versatilist profile will follow. After the
leadership wave, marketing-oriented digital business efforts such as business
intelligence (BI) will be next, followed by software development, digital
product management, project/program/portfolio management, and customer
experience management and architecture.
entire IT workforce in 2017, but by 2019, Gartner predicts that IT technical
specialist hires will fall by more than 5 percent as digital business
initiatives require increasing numbers of IT versatilists. This shift will
begin in infrastructure and operations (I&O),
as the need for I&O that can support on-demand infrastructure will emerge.
With a solid I&O foundation in place, an increase in nontechnical IT
managers and leaders with the versatilist profile will follow. After the
leadership wave, marketing-oriented digital business efforts such as business
intelligence (BI) will be next, followed by software development, digital
product management, project/program/portfolio management, and customer
experience management and architecture.
In 2020, AI will become a positive net job
motivator, creating 2.3 million jobs while eliminating only 1.8 million jobs.
motivator, creating 2.3 million jobs while eliminating only 1.8 million jobs.
AI will eliminate more jobs than it creates through
2019, however, Gartner believes that the number of jobs created due to AI in
2020 is sufficient to overcome the deficit. Net job creation or elimination
will vary greatly by industry; some industries will experience overall job
loss, some industries will experience net job loss for only a few years; and
some industries, such as healthcare and education, will never experience net
job loss. AI will improve the productivity of
many jobs, and, used creatively, it has the potential to enrich
people’s careers, reimagine old tasks and create new industries.
2019, however, Gartner believes that the number of jobs created due to AI in
2020 is sufficient to overcome the deficit. Net job creation or elimination
will vary greatly by industry; some industries will experience overall job
loss, some industries will experience net job loss for only a few years; and
some industries, such as healthcare and education, will never experience net
job loss. AI will improve the productivity of
many jobs, and, used creatively, it has the potential to enrich
people’s careers, reimagine old tasks and create new industries.
By 2020, IoT technology will be in 95 percent of
electronics for new product designs.
electronics for new product designs.
The combination of smartphone management, cloud
control and inexpensive enabling modules delivers sophisticated monitoring,
management and control with minimal additional cost in the target device. Once
this technology emerges, buyers will rapidly gravitate to Internet of Things (IoT)-capable
products, and interest in and demand for IoT-enabled products will rapidly
snowball. Every supplier must, at the very least, make plans to implement IoT
technology into its products, for both consumer and business buyers.
control and inexpensive enabling modules delivers sophisticated monitoring,
management and control with minimal additional cost in the target device. Once
this technology emerges, buyers will rapidly gravitate to Internet of Things (IoT)-capable
products, and interest in and demand for IoT-enabled products will rapidly
snowball. Every supplier must, at the very least, make plans to implement IoT
technology into its products, for both consumer and business buyers.
Through 2022, half of all security budgets for IoT
will go to fault remediation, recalls and safety failures rather than
protection.
will go to fault remediation, recalls and safety failures rather than
protection.
Risks related to the introduction
of IoT as part of projects or initiatives are substantially
impacted by the unintended consequences presented when the “pervasive
digital presence” is introduced across all industries and market sectors
as IoT growth expands. The requirement to update devices periodically, as is
done with mobile phones and other remote systems, is multiplied by numerous
factors, and the inability to perform those updates can result in massive
product recalls. For industrial environments,
scale and diversity may not be as significant, but the need to preserve safety
for individuals, the environment and the rich regulatory regime that controls
safety systems will ensure that the rapid expansion of use of IoT in those
systems will result in regulatory impacts for securing those systems.
of IoT as part of projects or initiatives are substantially
impacted by the unintended consequences presented when the “pervasive
digital presence” is introduced across all industries and market sectors
as IoT growth expands. The requirement to update devices periodically, as is
done with mobile phones and other remote systems, is multiplied by numerous
factors, and the inability to perform those updates can result in massive
product recalls. For industrial environments,
scale and diversity may not be as significant, but the need to preserve safety
for individuals, the environment and the rich regulatory regime that controls
safety systems will ensure that the rapid expansion of use of IoT in those
systems will result in regulatory impacts for securing those systems.
Gartner clients can read more in the report “Top Strategic Predictions for
2018 and Beyond: Pace Yourself, for Sanity’s Sake.”
2018 and Beyond: Pace Yourself, for Sanity’s Sake.”
About Gartner Symposium/ITxpo
Gartner
Symposium/ITxpo is the world’s most important gathering of CIOs and senior IT
leaders, uniting a global community of CIOs with the tools and strategies to
help them lead the next generation of IT and achieve business outcomes. More
than 23,000 CIOs, senior business and IT leaders worldwide will gather for the
insights they need to ensure that their IT initiatives are key contributors to,
and drivers of, their enterprise’s success.
Symposium/ITxpo is the world’s most important gathering of CIOs and senior IT
leaders, uniting a global community of CIOs with the tools and strategies to
help them lead the next generation of IT and achieve business outcomes. More
than 23,000 CIOs, senior business and IT leaders worldwide will gather for the
insights they need to ensure that their IT initiatives are key contributors to,
and drivers of, their enterprise’s success.
Follow news, photos and video coming from Gartner
Symposium/ITxpo on Smarter With Gartner, on Twitter using #GartnerSYM, Facebook and LinkedIn.
Symposium/ITxpo on Smarter With Gartner, on Twitter using #GartnerSYM, Facebook and LinkedIn.
For the LATEST tech updates,
FOLLOW us on our Twitter
LIKE us on our FaceBook
SUBSCRIBE to us on our YouTube Channel!
