How mobile robots will transform
material handling and logistics industries
IDTechEx
material handling and logistics industries
IDTechEx
Cambridge, UK
How
mobile robots will transform material handling and logistics industries
by Dr
Khasha Ghaffarzadeh, Research Director, IDTechEx
Mobile
robotics in material handling and logistics will become a $75bn market by
2027. It will then more than double by 2038. Thesestaggering headline
figures mask turbulent transformative change underneath: some
technologies will rise and transform the fortunes of industries, fuelling
growth rates far outpacing recent trends, whilst others will face with decay
and obsolescence. We are at the beginning of the beginning of a
transformative change, and the time to plan is now.
robotics in material handling and logistics will become a $75bn market by
2027. It will then more than double by 2038. Thesestaggering headline
figures mask turbulent transformative change underneath: some
technologies will rise and transform the fortunes of industries, fuelling
growth rates far outpacing recent trends, whilst others will face with decay
and obsolescence. We are at the beginning of the beginning of a
transformative change, and the time to plan is now.
The
IDTechEx Research report MobileRobots & Drones in Material Handling & Logistics 2017-2037 focuses on
all aspects of mobile robotics in material handling and logistics. In
particular, we consider the following: automated guided vehicles and carts
(AGVs and AGCs); autonomous mobile vehicles and carts/units; mobile picking
robots; last mile delivery ground robots (droids) and drones; and
autonomous trucks and light delivery vans (level 4 and level 5 automation).
IDTechEx Research report MobileRobots & Drones in Material Handling & Logistics 2017-2037 focuses on
all aspects of mobile robotics in material handling and logistics. In
particular, we consider the following: automated guided vehicles and carts
(AGVs and AGCs); autonomous mobile vehicles and carts/units; mobile picking
robots; last mile delivery ground robots (droids) and drones; and
autonomous trucks and light delivery vans (level 4 and level 5 automation).
We
provide technology roadmaps and twenty-year market forecasts, in unit numbers
and revenue, for all the technologies outlined above (11 forecast lines).
We built a twenty-year model because our technology roadmap suggests
that these changes will take place over long timescales. We further provide
investment/trend analysis and company interviews/profiles/reviews.
provide technology roadmaps and twenty-year market forecasts, in unit numbers
and revenue, for all the technologies outlined above (11 forecast lines).
We built a twenty-year model because our technology roadmap suggests
that these changes will take place over long timescales. We further provide
investment/trend analysis and company interviews/profiles/reviews.
Here,
in this rest of this article, we will briefly highlight the major changes that
our report anticipates.
in this rest of this article, we will briefly highlight the major changes that
our report anticipates.
Incumbents
face obsolescence?These
figures show a short-term as well as a long-term view of the market evolution.
Each colour refers to a different technology, demonstrating how the market
composition will completely change in the coming years and how technology
improvement (rise of autonomous mobile robots) will bring significant new
revenue into the industries considered. We are at the beginning of the
beginning of a transformative change, and the time to plan is now. This figure
includes automated guided vehicles and carts (AGVs and AGCs); autonomous
mobile vehicles and carts/units; mobile picking robots; last mile delivery
ground robots (droids) and drones; and autonomous trucks and light delivery
vans (level 4 and level 5). Note that the headline figure quoted above is at
the level of complete autonomous vehicle. We also provide forecasts at the
automation-only level where appropriate (e.g., autonomous trucks). For
more information please refer to MobileRobots & Drones in Material Handling & Logistics 2017-2037.
AGVs
are a mature technology that can safely transport payloads ranging from several
Kg to multiple tonnes, essentially acting as semi-rigid distributor conveyer
belts covering large areas. Their navigation technology is evolving. Today
multiple options are available ranging from the low-cost wire or magnetic tape
guidance to the increasingly popular laser guidance. All however requires
follow rigid guide points, thus requiring some degree of infrastructure
modification and extended onsite installation. This industry is showing
healthy, albeit small, grow rates.
are a mature technology that can safely transport payloads ranging from several
Kg to multiple tonnes, essentially acting as semi-rigid distributor conveyer
belts covering large areas. Their navigation technology is evolving. Today
multiple options are available ranging from the low-cost wire or magnetic tape
guidance to the increasingly popular laser guidance. All however requires
follow rigid guide points, thus requiring some degree of infrastructure
modification and extended onsite installation. This industry is showing
healthy, albeit small, grow rates.
This
gives an illusion of security to this mature high-fragmented business where
price competition is rise. The next generation navigation technology-
infrastructure-independent flexible autonomy- has the potential to shatter this
illusion. This new technology, whilst appearing just as the next natural step
in navigation technology evolution, requires a wholescale change in the
software side of the robots, giving an opportunity to new challengers to enter
and to fully redraw the competitive landscape.
gives an illusion of security to this mature high-fragmented business where
price competition is rise. The next generation navigation technology-
infrastructure-independent flexible autonomy- has the potential to shatter this
illusion. This new technology, whilst appearing just as the next natural step
in navigation technology evolution, requires a wholescale change in the
software side of the robots, giving an opportunity to new challengers to enter
and to fully redraw the competitive landscape.
Our report MobileRobots & Drones in Material Handling & Logistics 2017-2037 provides a
detailed and quantitative (revenue and unit numbers) assessment, forecasting
how sales of AGVs will grow then decline in the next twenty-years. In addition,
it will show how autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) will rise, not just largely
replacing AGVs but in time diffusing beyond the structured confines of
warehouses and factories.
detailed and quantitative (revenue and unit numbers) assessment, forecasting
how sales of AGVs will grow then decline in the next twenty-years. In addition,
it will show how autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) will rise, not just largely
replacing AGVs but in time diffusing beyond the structured confines of
warehouses and factories.
Forklifts
will never be the same?
will never be the same?
Navigational
autonomy will induce a colossal transfer of value from wage bills paid for
human-provided driving services towards spent on autonomous industrial
vehicles. This, in turn, will fuel the growth in this material handling vehicle
industry (e.g. forklift), creating significant revenues over a
business-as-usual scenario. This is despite our technology roadmap showing that
hardware commoditisation will slowly devalue such driving services particularly
in high-wage regions.
autonomy will induce a colossal transfer of value from wage bills paid for
human-provided driving services towards spent on autonomous industrial
vehicles. This, in turn, will fuel the growth in this material handling vehicle
industry (e.g. forklift), creating significant revenues over a
business-as-usual scenario. This is despite our technology roadmap showing that
hardware commoditisation will slowly devalue such driving services particularly
in high-wage regions.
AGVs
barely made a dent in this industry. This is because their navigational
rigidity put a low ceiling on their total market scope, keeping them as a small
subset of the warehouse/factory automation business. Autonomous mobile
robots are radically different however because they will ultimately enable
automation to largely keep the flexibility and versatility of human-operated
vehicles.
barely made a dent in this industry. This is because their navigational
rigidity put a low ceiling on their total market scope, keeping them as a small
subset of the warehouse/factory automation business. Autonomous mobile
robots are radically different however because they will ultimately enable
automation to largely keep the flexibility and versatility of human-operated
vehicles.
Our
technology roadmap in the report- MobileRobots & Drones in Material Handling & Logistics 2017-2037 – suggests
that this change will not happen overnight, explaining why we have built
twenty-year forecast models where each phase of market evolution is justified.
They will, however, take place much earlier than mobile autonomy in
general driving since the structured and controlled environment of indoor
industrial facilities lends itself better to automation.
technology roadmap in the report- MobileRobots & Drones in Material Handling & Logistics 2017-2037 – suggests
that this change will not happen overnight, explaining why we have built
twenty-year forecast models where each phase of market evolution is justified.
They will, however, take place much earlier than mobile autonomy in
general driving since the structured and controlled environment of indoor
industrial facilities lends itself better to automation.
Indeed,
our model suggests that autonomous forklifts, for example, will remain a tiny
share of the global addressable market until around 2023 but will soon after
enter the rapid growth phase, causing a transformation of the industry and
dramatically raising adoption levels to as high as 70% by 2038.
our model suggests that autonomous forklifts, for example, will remain a tiny
share of the global addressable market until around 2023 but will soon after
enter the rapid growth phase, causing a transformation of the industry and
dramatically raising adoption levels to as high as 70% by 2038.
This
trend may not yet be on investor presentation of big, say, forklift suppliers,
but will inevitable rise up the agenda as a key feature of the industry
for years to come. Read MobileRobots & Drones in Material Handling & Logistics 2017-2037 for
more details.
trend may not yet be on investor presentation of big, say, forklift suppliers,
but will inevitable rise up the agenda as a key feature of the industry
for years to come. Read MobileRobots & Drones in Material Handling & Logistics 2017-2037 for
more details.
Mobile
picking robots will learn, fast
picking robots will learn, fast
Navigational
autonomy will induce a colossal transfer of value from wage bills paid for
human-provided driving services towards spent on autonomous industrial
vehicles. This, in turn, will fuel the growth in this material handling vehicle
industry (e.g., forklift), creating significant revenues over a
business-as-usual scenario. This is despite our technology roadmap showing that
hardware commoditisation will slowly devalue such driving services particularly
in high-wage regions.
autonomy will induce a colossal transfer of value from wage bills paid for
human-provided driving services towards spent on autonomous industrial
vehicles. This, in turn, will fuel the growth in this material handling vehicle
industry (e.g., forklift), creating significant revenues over a
business-as-usual scenario. This is despite our technology roadmap showing that
hardware commoditisation will slowly devalue such driving services particularly
in high-wage regions.
In
our report MobileRobots & Drones in Material Handling & Logistics 2017-2037 we
provide a forecast model showing how mobile picking unit will evolve going
through different phases of performance (sub-human, approaching human, and
potentially exceeding human) over a twenty-year period for both regular
and irregular/mixed shaped items. We provide forecast in unit sales as
well as revenue. We further include company overviews/interviews as well as
technology analysis.
our report MobileRobots & Drones in Material Handling & Logistics 2017-2037 we
provide a forecast model showing how mobile picking unit will evolve going
through different phases of performance (sub-human, approaching human, and
potentially exceeding human) over a twenty-year period for both regular
and irregular/mixed shaped items. We provide forecast in unit sales as
well as revenue. We further include company overviews/interviews as well as
technology analysis.
Disrupting
the last mile delivery using mobile ground robots
the last mile delivery using mobile ground robots
Last
mile delivery remains an expensive affair in the parcel delivery business,
often representing more than half of the total cost. Its importance is also
growing thanks to a change in the composition of total deliveries with B2C
deliveries rapidly taking on a bigger share. E-commerce companies are
also pushing next-day and now same-day services hoping to take away that last
stronghold of bricks-and-mortar shops: instant customer fulfilment.
mile delivery remains an expensive affair in the parcel delivery business,
often representing more than half of the total cost. Its importance is also
growing thanks to a change in the composition of total deliveries with B2C
deliveries rapidly taking on a bigger share. E-commerce companies are
also pushing next-day and now same-day services hoping to take away that last
stronghold of bricks-and-mortar shops: instant customer fulfilment.
Autonomous
mobile delivery robots are currently small slow-moving units that will need to
return to base to charge. They often need close supervision and can only
operate in sparsely-populated and highly-structured environments such as
university campuses or special neighbourhood. They therefore are unproductive
and easy to dismiss as gimmicks.
mobile delivery robots are currently small slow-moving units that will need to
return to base to charge. They often need close supervision and can only
operate in sparsely-populated and highly-structured environments such as
university campuses or special neighbourhood. They therefore are unproductive
and easy to dismiss as gimmicks.
This is
however only the beginning of the beginning. Our cost projections in the report
suggest that these mobile robots can indeed become low-cost. The robots are now
in the trial and learning phase, gathering more data and optimising the
navigational algorithms. They will become increasingly more adept at path
planning, even when GPS signals fail, and at object avoidance. The increased
autonomous mobility capability will in turn enable a lower
operator-to-fleet-size ratio, furthering boosting overall fleet productivity.
however only the beginning of the beginning. Our cost projections in the report
suggest that these mobile robots can indeed become low-cost. The robots are now
in the trial and learning phase, gathering more data and optimising the
navigational algorithms. They will become increasingly more adept at path
planning, even when GPS signals fail, and at object avoidance. The increased
autonomous mobility capability will in turn enable a lower
operator-to-fleet-size ratio, furthering boosting overall fleet productivity.
Our
report MobileRobots & Drones in Material Handling & Logistics 2017-2037 details
a quantitative picture, in unit numbers as well as revenue, of
the emergence of last mile delivery mobile robots over the coming two decades,
clearly explaining the different phases of evolution from trial/early
commercial sales toward rapid market penetration and finally towards maturity
and then revenue decline (our model shows that hardware commoditization
outpaces volume growth).
report MobileRobots & Drones in Material Handling & Logistics 2017-2037 details
a quantitative picture, in unit numbers as well as revenue, of
the emergence of last mile delivery mobile robots over the coming two decades,
clearly explaining the different phases of evolution from trial/early
commercial sales toward rapid market penetration and finally towards maturity
and then revenue decline (our model shows that hardware commoditization
outpaces volume growth).
Delivery
drones: publicity stunt or a game changer in instant fulfilment?
drones: publicity stunt or a game changer in instant fulfilment?
The
idea of drone delivery sharply divides commentator opinion: some dismiss it as
a mere publicity stunt whilst others consider it a game changer that will bring
near instant product fulfilment to e-commerce, stripping traditional shops of
their last major differentiator.
idea of drone delivery sharply divides commentator opinion: some dismiss it as
a mere publicity stunt whilst others consider it a game changer that will bring
near instant product fulfilment to e-commerce, stripping traditional shops of
their last major differentiator.
Drone
delivery faces critical challenges. Individual drones offer limited
productivity compared to traditional means of delivery. They can only carry
small payloads and battery technology limits their flight duration,
constraining them to around 30min radius of their base whilst further lowering
their productivity due to the downtime needed for
re-charging/re-loading. Safety is a potential showstopper with many
accidents waiting to happen.
delivery faces critical challenges. Individual drones offer limited
productivity compared to traditional means of delivery. They can only carry
small payloads and battery technology limits their flight duration,
constraining them to around 30min radius of their base whilst further lowering
their productivity due to the downtime needed for
re-charging/re-loading. Safety is a potential showstopper with many
accidents waiting to happen.
Drone
delivery however is still in its infancy. Its short-term potential, we find,
has been exaggerated. However, the technology has long-term future,
particularly within the context of the bigger trend to automate as much as of
the logistic chain as possible.
delivery however is still in its infancy. Its short-term potential, we find,
has been exaggerated. However, the technology has long-term future,
particularly within the context of the bigger trend to automate as much as of
the logistic chain as possible.
Indeed,
we find that delivery drone sales will remain limited until 2027/28. Demand
will then start to taking off in remote or sparsely-populated
(e.g. suburbs), ultimately enabling companies to establish large
accumulated fleets. Despite their ultimate rise, however, drone delivery will
remain only a small part of the much bigger commercial drone story.
we find that delivery drone sales will remain limited until 2027/28. Demand
will then start to taking off in remote or sparsely-populated
(e.g. suburbs), ultimately enabling companies to establish large
accumulated fleets. Despite their ultimate rise, however, drone delivery will
remain only a small part of the much bigger commercial drone story.
Trucking:
a large attractive business to autonomize?
a large attractive business to autonomize?
Trucking
is a big business. In the US, the trucking industry revenues are in excess of
$726bn. This is the equivalent of combined revenues of Apple, Amazon, Google,
Microsoft, IBM, Baidu and then some (a lot) more. It is also a big employer:
the US Bureau of Labour Statistics suggests that 1.79m people work in this
sector driving 7.2m trucks for inter-city freight transport earning an average
salary of 41.3 k$/year. No wonder this is a hot topic now then.
is a big business. In the US, the trucking industry revenues are in excess of
$726bn. This is the equivalent of combined revenues of Apple, Amazon, Google,
Microsoft, IBM, Baidu and then some (a lot) more. It is also a big employer:
the US Bureau of Labour Statistics suggests that 1.79m people work in this
sector driving 7.2m trucks for inter-city freight transport earning an average
salary of 41.3 k$/year. No wonder this is a hot topic now then.
Trucking
is also potentially an easier target than general passenger cars. This is
because it spends much of its time in intercity roads which are less congested
and less sinuous than city ones. The driver may remain in the vehicle, but the
commercial inventive, even in this hybrid approach, exists because it may
justify a relaxation of the rulebook which limits driving hours. This can
therefore boost driver productivity and asset utilization.
is also potentially an easier target than general passenger cars. This is
because it spends much of its time in intercity roads which are less congested
and less sinuous than city ones. The driver may remain in the vehicle, but the
commercial inventive, even in this hybrid approach, exists because it may
justify a relaxation of the rulebook which limits driving hours. This can
therefore boost driver productivity and asset utilization.
Our forecasts
and technology roadmaps show how different levels of automation (level 4 and 5)
will rise and fall in trucking over the next twenty years. Our forecast model
has detailed projections for the future cost of automation hardware systems
(Lidar, radar, IMU, GPS, PC, etc.) based on historical learning curves of
similar technologies. Our forecasts are expressed in unit numbers as well
as in value- both at the level of the truck itself and the automation part. We
further provide reviews/profiles of industry players.
and technology roadmaps show how different levels of automation (level 4 and 5)
will rise and fall in trucking over the next twenty years. Our forecast model
has detailed projections for the future cost of automation hardware systems
(Lidar, radar, IMU, GPS, PC, etc.) based on historical learning curves of
similar technologies. Our forecasts are expressed in unit numbers as well
as in value- both at the level of the truck itself and the automation part. We
further provide reviews/profiles of industry players.
About IDTechEx
IDTechEx guides your strategic business decisions through its
Research and Events services, helping you profit from emerging technologies. We
provide independent research, business intelligence and advice to companies
across the value chain based on research activities and methodologies which
provide data sought by business leaders, strategists and technology scouts to
aid their critical business decisions. To discuss your needs please contact us
at research@IDTechEx.com or
see www.IDTechEx.com.
Research and Events services, helping you profit from emerging technologies. We
provide independent research, business intelligence and advice to companies
across the value chain based on research activities and methodologies which
provide data sought by business leaders, strategists and technology scouts to
aid their critical business decisions. To discuss your needs please contact us
at research@IDTechEx.com or
see www.IDTechEx.com.
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