Wednesday
9 November 2016
9 November 2016
The Bus of the Future
IDTechEx
IDTechEx
Cambridge, UK
The Bus of the Future
By Dr Peter
Harrop, Chairman, IDTechEx
By Dr Peter
Harrop, Chairman, IDTechEx
Buses are very important. Injuries and deaths from two wheelers
have not reduced very much in decades whereas vehicles with four wheels or more
have seen huge improvements. Nevertheless, because 70% of us will soon live in
cities with that figure rising to 80% in 2050, car sales will peak as they are
increasingly discouraged then banned from cities because of the congestion and
parking space they need. Peak car will be 2030 according to IDTechEx Research,
earlier in the view of Barclays Research which cites how the millennials and
increasingly others prefer mobility on demand. That includes rental of a car
from the roadside by people who do not see it as a status symbol and those wanting
to tap their phone all the time hop
on a bus. Add to that people who cannot
or will nottake a driving test and autonomous taxis, often a
form of autonomous car, become very attractive and certain to be encouraged in cities. 20 cars
used 3% of the time can be replaced by one autonomous taxi used 60% of the time that trundles outside the city when not in use, a
vision prompting a recent children’s book, “Where Do Cars Go At Night?”. See the upcoming IDTechEx Research report,Electric Car Technology and Forecasts
2017-2027.
have not reduced very much in decades whereas vehicles with four wheels or more
have seen huge improvements. Nevertheless, because 70% of us will soon live in
cities with that figure rising to 80% in 2050, car sales will peak as they are
increasingly discouraged then banned from cities because of the congestion and
parking space they need. Peak car will be 2030 according to IDTechEx Research,
earlier in the view of Barclays Research which cites how the millennials and
increasingly others prefer mobility on demand. That includes rental of a car
from the roadside by people who do not see it as a status symbol and those wanting
to tap their phone all the time hop
on a bus. Add to that people who cannot
or will nottake a driving test and autonomous taxis, often a
form of autonomous car, become very attractive and certain to be encouraged in cities. 20 cars
used 3% of the time can be replaced by one autonomous taxi used 60% of the time that trundles outside the city when not in use, a
vision prompting a recent children’s book, “Where Do Cars Go At Night?”. See the upcoming IDTechEx Research report,Electric Car Technology and Forecasts
2017-2027.
Buses will be key
The future bus, subway and train are even more important than those
autonomous taxis. China has found that the 140 million people going to work on
electric bikes and scooters cause a lot of accidents, congestion and lead
pollution as some irresponsibly dispose of the batteries that need changing every year. It is strongly
backing pure electric buses to the extent that the largest
value market forlarge lithium-ion
batteries last year was buses not
cars. See the IDTechEx reports, Lithium-ion Batteries 2016-2026 and Lithium-ionBatteries forElectric Buses 2016-2026. A large bus uses one seventh of the
energy and one tenth of the space of a car per passengerkilometer. IDTechEx
Research calculates that 2.3 million electric buses will be made in 2027, about
five times those made in 2016 but taking many very new forms as they are reinvented.
autonomous taxis. China has found that the 140 million people going to work on
electric bikes and scooters cause a lot of accidents, congestion and lead
pollution as some irresponsibly dispose of the batteries that need changing every year. It is strongly
backing pure electric buses to the extent that the largest
value market forlarge lithium-ion
batteries last year was buses not
cars. See the IDTechEx reports, Lithium-ion Batteries 2016-2026 and Lithium-ionBatteries forElectric Buses 2016-2026. A large bus uses one seventh of the
energy and one tenth of the space of a car per passengerkilometer. IDTechEx
Research calculates that 2.3 million electric buses will be made in 2027, about
five times those made in 2016 but taking many very new forms as they are reinvented.
Autonomous and multi-purpose
The driverless autonomous bus will be popular, with no user push
back because we readily happily climb into driverless trains at
airports already – even driverless pods at Heathrow Airport London where that technology is now
being upgraded to create free-running autonomous buses. The robot bus and taxi may merge
sometimes by running a route at full occupancy to help regular busesat peak times then reverting to on-demand taxi
service. See the IDTechEx Research report, Autonomous VehiclesLand, Water and Air 2017-2037.
back because we readily happily climb into driverless trains at
airports already – even driverless pods at Heathrow Airport London where that technology is now
being upgraded to create free-running autonomous buses. The robot bus and taxi may merge
sometimes by running a route at full occupancy to help regular busesat peak times then reverting to on-demand taxi
service. See the IDTechEx Research report, Autonomous VehiclesLand, Water and Air 2017-2037.
New components, straddling bus technology
Small batteries may suffice with intermittent catenary charging
like that being trialled in three
countries for long distance trucks today.Certainly pure electric
will win not the less efficient, less reliable fuel cells even if they
eventually get green hydrogen and capture some niches.
like that being trialled in three
countries for long distance trucks today.Certainly pure electric
will win not the less efficient, less reliable fuel cells even if they
eventually get green hydrogen and capture some niches.
Double decker and straddling buses will be popular to cope efficiently with all those new passengers and they
will have more spare space due structural electronics rather than the old
components-in-a-box approach to powertrains. Think in-wheel motors (BYD already
has near wheel, eliminating a big axle. Nicola plans six in-wheel motors for
large trucks) and composite bodywork that makes and stores electricity
(Proterra already has composite
bodywork and the next Chinese straddling buses will carry 1000 and get maybe 20kW for a huge solar
roof). The bloodletting from buses crashing over potholes from London to
Calcutta will cease with Levant Power active suspension elegantly making its
own electricity from 12kW or more
of energy harvesting shock absorbers.
will have more spare space due structural electronics rather than the old
components-in-a-box approach to powertrains. Think in-wheel motors (BYD already
has near wheel, eliminating a big axle. Nicola plans six in-wheel motors for
large trucks) and composite bodywork that makes and stores electricity
(Proterra already has composite
bodywork and the next Chinese straddling buses will carry 1000 and get maybe 20kW for a huge solar
roof). The bloodletting from buses crashing over potholes from London to
Calcutta will cease with Levant Power active suspension elegantly making its
own electricity from 12kW or more
of energy harvesting shock absorbers.
Energy independent buses
Feather light, conformal, highest-efficiency photovoltaics will
be all over the bus and even expand outwards and
across windows when the bus is
not in use making an increasing number of buses into Energy
Independent Vehicles EIV, pure electric and never plugging in. Fantasy?
Not at all. You can already buy an eight seater EIV and bus from Nanowinn Technologies in China with advanced
CIGS photovoltaics and super-efficient powertrain, large buses in Uganda get a
high proportion of their electricity from the searing sun hitting their solar
roofing. Indeed, Hanergy in China has just demonstrated EIV cars using the most efficient lightweight solar
of all – gallium arsenide film it makes itself. Hanergy says they will be on
sale in 2020 and generate over 1kW per car, plenty to charge the battery even
for night time use in urban duty.
The cost has to drop from $1
million per car but the Chinese are good at that. Meanwhile IFEVS in Italy has made a
solar pizza van that can go anywhere and even cook using electricity from its
roof and lifting solarsides and a large telescopic wind turbine that erects
when it is stationary, following others having little erecting turbines on
cars. See the IDTechEx Research reports, Energy Independent Vehicles 2016-2026 and Energy IndependentElectric Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2016-2036.
be all over the bus and even expand outwards and
across windows when the bus is
not in use making an increasing number of buses into Energy
Independent Vehicles EIV, pure electric and never plugging in. Fantasy?
Not at all. You can already buy an eight seater EIV and bus from Nanowinn Technologies in China with advanced
CIGS photovoltaics and super-efficient powertrain, large buses in Uganda get a
high proportion of their electricity from the searing sun hitting their solar
roofing. Indeed, Hanergy in China has just demonstrated EIV cars using the most efficient lightweight solar
of all – gallium arsenide film it makes itself. Hanergy says they will be on
sale in 2020 and generate over 1kW per car, plenty to charge the battery even
for night time use in urban duty.
The cost has to drop from $1
million per car but the Chinese are good at that. Meanwhile IFEVS in Italy has made a
solar pizza van that can go anywhere and even cook using electricity from its
roof and lifting solarsides and a large telescopic wind turbine that erects
when it is stationary, following others having little erecting turbines on
cars. See the IDTechEx Research reports, Energy Independent Vehicles 2016-2026 and Energy IndependentElectric Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2016-2036.
Reinventing bus layout
Tesla plans something driverless like a bus they say. Perhaps
the sides, front and back will
lift to get passengers onto seats faster from all directions because Tesla
seems to imply it would have no
aisle. There is much more
happening.
the sides, front and back will
lift to get passengers onto seats faster from all directions because Tesla
seems to imply it would have no
aisle. There is much more
happening.
Structural electronics
The IDTechEx report on e-Textiles is proving popular as Toyota and others develop structural electronics inside the
vehicle such as voided 3D printed seats grown with their sensors, heaters and
coolers and covered in smart fabric. Hanergy has GaAs solar on the dashboard to
power internal hotel facilities and TactoTek is seeing its smart plastic lighting, electronics and actuators combined replacing the load-bearing, impact-resistant
dashboard and overhead clusters.
vehicle such as voided 3D printed seats grown with their sensors, heaters and
coolers and covered in smart fabric. Hanergy has GaAs solar on the dashboard to
power internal hotel facilities and TactoTek is seeing its smart plastic lighting, electronics and actuators combined replacing the load-bearing, impact-resistant
dashboard and overhead clusters.
Lizard buses
You can buy the Nanowinn bus without a battery
so it is not only much more affordable, it wakes up with minimal daylight and
still goes faster than walking pace because it is more lightweight. Of course,
it will need maintenance much less often and it will last much longer.
so it is not only much more affordable, it wakes up with minimal daylight and
still goes faster than walking pace because it is more lightweight. Of course,
it will need maintenance much less often and it will last much longer.
Losers
There will be losers of course. The heavy ladder type of chassis
will go. Businesses in hybrid and conventional buses, steel,
oil, charging stations, lead acid batteries, brushed motors, silicon power
components, internal combustion
engines, hybrid and conventionalpowertrains and allied activities such as most maintenance
and parts businesses will become losers, many within the decade. Bus drivers will be needed less often.
will go. Businesses in hybrid and conventional buses, steel,
oil, charging stations, lead acid batteries, brushed motors, silicon power
components, internal combustion
engines, hybrid and conventionalpowertrains and allied activities such as most maintenance
and parts businesses will become losers, many within the decade. Bus drivers will be needed less often.
Winners
Winners will include those in energy harvesting and
regeneration, silicon carbide and gallium nitride power components, affordable
long life high efficiency, high power density motors, in-wheel motors, merged systems, fast chargers, inductive chargers, structural electronics, tires that
generate electricity if they prove viable, range extenders for a while, advanced supercapacitors and their
derivatives, non-flammable, high energy density batteries, the connected
vehicle, specialty autonomy
hardware and autonomy software and services. See IDTechEx Research reports on power electronics, future powertrains, range extenders, advanced and postlithium batteries, electric motors and so on.
regeneration, silicon carbide and gallium nitride power components, affordable
long life high efficiency, high power density motors, in-wheel motors, merged systems, fast chargers, inductive chargers, structural electronics, tires that
generate electricity if they prove viable, range extenders for a while, advanced supercapacitors and their
derivatives, non-flammable, high energy density batteries, the connected
vehicle, specialty autonomy
hardware and autonomy software and services. See IDTechEx Research reports on power electronics, future powertrains, range extenders, advanced and postlithium batteries, electric motors and so on.
China resurgent
China will win by making commoditised electronic and electrical bus hardware
and buses costing one third to
one half of the cost of those abroad due to its automation, innovation and
volume in the protected Chinese market that is at least four times that of the
rest of the world put together, amplified by a mandatory shorter bus replacement
time and the Chinese plan to grow and electrify the school
bus fleet possibly to hit the 10 million mark. China will be able to flood the world
with low cost buses just as it has done withelectronic wristwatches and much else besides. All over the world, they are setting
up final assembly operations and, where necessary, more to claim local manufacture for pure electric buses.
and buses costing one third to
one half of the cost of those abroad due to its automation, innovation and
volume in the protected Chinese market that is at least four times that of the
rest of the world put together, amplified by a mandatory shorter bus replacement
time and the Chinese plan to grow and electrify the school
bus fleet possibly to hit the 10 million mark. China will be able to flood the world
with low cost buses just as it has done withelectronic wristwatches and much else besides. All over the world, they are setting
up final assembly operations and, where necessary, more to claim local manufacture for pure electric buses.
World’s largest event on these technologies
The world’s most
comprehensive event on these
technologies is the 3000+ delegate 200+ exhibitor IDTechExShow! with
eight parallel conferences and a show floor conference on 16-17 November in Santa Clara, California. Add 23
masterclasses on the days before and after the event, large Japanese and Korean delegate dinners and
more. It embraces everything from future powertrains, solar vehicles,energy harvesting and storage,
structural and printedelectronics, Internetof Things, graphene and 3Dprinting to
specifically ElectricVehicles: Everything is Changing. Selected start-ups,
mostly EV related, exhibit
free. There are many prestigious prizes for excellence. Speakers
include Proterra and BYD on their electric buses, Google, Toyota, NASA,
Ford, Nissan, Porsche, Volkswagen, Panasonic, Siemens, Komatsu, Murata,
GE, Intel, HP, Samsung, Sharp and
the world’s largest smart materials companies from Sabic to DuPont, for this is a truly global
event. Organisers IDTechEx have also carefully
selected a host of start-ups from
across the world with game
changing inventions to make first announcements, for this is Silicon Valley.
comprehensive event on these
technologies is the 3000+ delegate 200+ exhibitor IDTechExShow! with
eight parallel conferences and a show floor conference on 16-17 November in Santa Clara, California. Add 23
masterclasses on the days before and after the event, large Japanese and Korean delegate dinners and
more. It embraces everything from future powertrains, solar vehicles,energy harvesting and storage,
structural and printedelectronics, Internetof Things, graphene and 3Dprinting to
specifically ElectricVehicles: Everything is Changing. Selected start-ups,
mostly EV related, exhibit
free. There are many prestigious prizes for excellence. Speakers
include Proterra and BYD on their electric buses, Google, Toyota, NASA,
Ford, Nissan, Porsche, Volkswagen, Panasonic, Siemens, Komatsu, Murata,
GE, Intel, HP, Samsung, Sharp and
the world’s largest smart materials companies from Sabic to DuPont, for this is a truly global
event. Organisers IDTechEx have also carefully
selected a host of start-ups from
across the world with game
changing inventions to make first announcements, for this is Silicon Valley.
For the LATEST tech updates,
FOLLOW us on our Twitter
LIKE us on our FaceBook
SUBSCRIBE to us on our YouTube Channel!
